Thursday, March 10, 2011

The Savings Glut

I've ran into a few papers reinforcing the tie between global flows of capital, US monetary policy, and the financial crisis:

- This VoxEU article by Filipa Sa, Pascal Tobin, and Tomasz Wieladek argues that capital inflows, low interest rates, and a greater degree of domestic securitization were all linked to greater housing appreciation.

-Courtesy of David Beckworth, this paper by Rudiger Ahrend argues that persistently low interest rates are associated with larger rises in asset prices.

-Also by Beckworth, this paper by Thierry Bracke and Michael Fidora argues that monetary shocks, or liquidity, explain trends in global financial flows.

All in all, this seems increasingly damning for the Fed. Even if one accepts their excuse that foreign capital flows explain the whole issue, and that foreign preferences for savings and investment explain those flows -- that still would argue for some sort of action to curb capital flows.

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